The Ill-fated 2023 National Population And Housing Census Exercise

By Akintayo Balogun Esq. 

The attempt by the outing going administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to push a last-minute effort of carrying out a long overdue population census exercise of Nigerians in Nigeria met its waterloo when the administration was forced to announce an indefinite postponement of the census exercise and a possible pushover of the exercise to the incoming administration. The census which had been tentatively earmarked to commence on Wednesday, May 3, 2023, and to run until Sunday, May 7, 2023, was to be conducted across the 36 States in Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). 
Population census, which had been recommended by the United Nations to hold every 10 years, has not been achievable by successive governments in Nigeria. Prior to this recent attempt, a population census was held in 1991 and then in 2006. Other census exercises conducted since after independence were held in 1962, 1962/63, and 1973. Nigeria for most of the time has depended on population estimations to determine its population which currently stands at 220 million based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data. 

The Essence of Population And Housing Census
Knowing the population strength of any country is a fundamental requirement for the running of a government, the determination of economic policies, and the distribution of allocation from the federation account. In Nigeria for example, population figure is used to determine membership of the legislative houses save the Senate. Membership of the Senate is equal across the board, but the House of Representatives and the various Houses of Assembly are based on population. While Lagos and Kano enjoy the highest number of representatives in the House of Representatives with 24 members each, Bayelsa and Nasarawa states have only five representatives each. All these are determined by the results of a population census. The census of 2023 would probably have compelled a constitutional change to the composition of the House of Representatives and the various Houses of Assembly if the exercise had been carried out. 

The problem with Population Census
Since the inception of Nigeria as an entity, no census result has been entirely acceptable to all the regions of the country. There has always been protest from regions that believe their population was reduced while the population of other regions was inflated. Since the first post-independence census conducted in 1962, all censuses have put the northern region in Nigeria ahead of the south in numbers, which has never gone down well with the south. All population censuses conducted in Nigeria since 1962 have all been contested heavily, particularly by the southern region of Nigeria which believes the numbers are always being inflated in favour of the north against the south. 
Although from the sample of the forms that have been in circulation, the issue of religion and ethnicity is being suppressed to minimize controversies on issues surrounding this topic, there will still be allegations of manipulation of figures in favor of one state, one geo-political zone, one region or the other. 

The problem with the 2023 population census and the resultant postponement
Firstly, the population census exercise was not met with much enthusiasm by many Nigerians, particularly in the wake of the 2023 general elections that were marred with a series of irregularities, protests, malpractices, killings, snatching of ballot boxes and inflation of results and the resultant deflation in the confidence that Nigerians had reposed in the ability of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to execute a free and fair election. Is it a country that failed to carry out an election of registered voters of about 93 million persons both dead and alive that now seeks to conduct a population census of nearly 250 million persons? A higher percentage of Nigerians are even not aware that there is a plan by the Federal Government to conduct a population census of its citizens. Personally, I have been the least enthusiastic person about the census exercise. If the exercise requires me to go to a certain location to be counted or to fill forms outside my house, I will definitely not bother moving an inch from the comfort of my house. I was not expecting anything much from the census as I expected that many manipulations the type that is worse than what happened in the general elections will repeat itself. 

Secondly, the kind of funds being plummeted into the population census exercise is mind-boggling and extremely humongous. It is budgeted that an estimated sum of 1.8 Billion US Dollars would be required to execute the exercise. That is a total of One trillion Naira and over three Hundred Billion Naira at the current exchange rate. This is just to count Nigerians? This is absolutely unacceptable and disappointing for a government that came into office on the mantra of fighting corruption and wasteful expenditure of the government. The funds being committed to counting Nigerians can be used to fix the epileptic power sector that has been a thorn in the flesh of Nigerians and a cankerworm to the industrial growth in Nigeria. It could have been used to fix every single road in Nigeria. Instead, it is being used to do a population census whose result will not be acceptable to many Nigerians. Why waste so many resources on a futile mission?

Thirdly, it hurts so much that a good junk of the budgeted sum has been expended for a census exercise that may not hold in the nearest future except the incoming government shows an interest in the exercise. The National Population Commission chairman, Isa-Kwarra had disclosed to pressmen that the commission had yet to get all the devices needed to carry out the census, noting that some devices will be procured in a few days. He stated further that about 800,000 PADs would be needed to execute the exercise, however, about 500,000 PADs have been acquired and the remaining is expected in a few days. In the streets of Abuja for example, several billboards have littered the city sensitizing people to the census exercise. There have also been several jingles on air relating to the exercise. Everything simply goes to the bin. Training has been carried out for ad-hoc staff in some quarters and training fees paid as well according to some of the officials of the NPC at State levels. It would just be like the fate of the National Confab that was held in 2014 and we are still waiting till thy kingdom come to have the resolutions of the confab implemented. What if the next government has no interest whatsoever in the counting exercise?

Fourthly, the government has failed to deal with some of the problems that have bedeviled Nigeria. Basic amongst them is the issue of insecurity, kidnapping, killings, and wanton destruction of properties. In this era where people are being kidnapped every day and the government makes little or no effort to rescue these victims. Families of victims are forced to pay the ransom for the release of their loved ones. Who will go to this volatile region to do a head count? It is of note that INEC ad-hoc officials were kidnapped during the last 2023 general election. Nothing was done to secure their immediate release by the government, yet the results of elections from these regions were announced. Who will go to Sambisa forest to conduct the census there? Who wants to embark on a suicide mission? Would they not meet their Waterloo like the 9 innocent health workers who were killed when they went to administer polio vaccines to children? Who would go to some places in the southeast where some agitators have destroyed their Nigerian identities and are now claiming citizenship and allegiance to another? The challenges ahead of any census exercise to be conducted in Nigeria are enormous and dealing with these challenges should have been the priority before considering a leap at the census exercise. 

Fifthly, what happens to the several millions of full-blooded Nigerians based outside the shores of Nigeria? Do they not form part of the exercise? Do they lose their citizenship having been absent in the course of the population census? Are there modalities to have Nigerians outside the shores of Nigeria counted? 

In conclusion
From the history of Nigeria, even during the colonial era, population census has never done much good for Nigeria. It has always left a bitter taste on the lips of Nigerians. There has never been a census result that was accepted in good faith. The Southerners always allege that cows are being counted in the North. But the South fail to recognize the large size of families in the North compared to the South. A man in the South is satisfied with a wife and a maximum of 4 children while an average man in the North is perfect with having 4 wives and not less than 4 children per wife. How then do we expect a balance in the population growth in these regions? Again, the unrest that has rocked the northern part of Nigeria and particularly the Northeastern part of Nigeria for well over a decade ordinarily should have greatly affected the population growth in the north as several thousands of Nigerians have lost their lives to senseless killings and destruction of property and have been displaced to other regions of the country. However, the number of persons that voted or allegedly voted in the last 4 general elections during the period of this unrest has shown that the unrest and displacement of persons does not disturb the voting exercises. This is one of the mysteries of northern Nigeria that has not been unraveled. 
Going by the recent development and the indefinite postponement of the population census in Nigeria, the entire clamor and uproar about the census has turned meaningless and a waste of valuable resources that would have been channeled into a more productive course for Nigeria. The funds already pushed in the exercise are already wasted because any government that wishes to embark on the same process would more or less be starting afresh. 
There are unconfirmed reports that the National Population Commission plans to meet with the President-elect, Bola Tinubu, even before his inauguration to discuss possible new dates for the population and housing census. This will only depend on the interest of the incoming administration in showing any interest in carrying out the said census exercise. In the face of issues bedeviling the nation from insecurity to a high level of inflation that has befallen the nation in recent years, the list of what the incoming government would be expected to embark upon is a population census. 

Akintayo Balogun Esq., LL.B (Hons), BL, LL.M, is a legal practitioner in private practice, based in Abuja, FCT. A prolific writer, public affairs analyst, and commentator on national issues. 
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